Statistical modelling of voter ID laws and turnout
Rivka Lipkovitz · San Francisco, California
Fifth Place ($90,000) · Regeneron Science Talent Search · 2025
A statistical study of the effect of strict voter identification requirements on presidential election turnout across US states.
Presidential election turnout was estimated to drop by 2.4% in states with strict identification requirements.
A politically charged question answered with a specified model and a stated effect size. The discipline of the method is what makes the result arguable on the evidence rather than on the topic.
- Panel data assembly across states
- Statistical modelling of turnout
- Effect-size estimation
- Controlling for state-level covariates
- On contested topics, the method has to be defensible enough that the conclusion is about the data
- Observational social science needs its identification strategy stated up front — how do you know it is the law and not the state?
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